"In times of rapid change, experience could be your worst enemy."
— J. Paul Getty
As we have written, VC’s are creatures of habit. Pattern recognition is our primary weapon of the trade. What makes the difference between a good VC and a great VC is how effective he/she is at making profitable decisions during periods of inflection and when old rules/experiences may hinder rather than help. In yet another example of how quickly things change when they go, look at the TV set world. The NYT has a great article "Picture Tubes Are Fading Into the Past". It just seems like a couple of years ago that flat panels were starting to reach "affluent" affordability and just in the last 18 months when more and more friends were bringing them into their houses. Now, major manufacturers are getting out of the CRT world altogether (Panasonic) or almost out (Sony). You want to be "where the puck is going, not where it is" in these cases.
You can see this starting to hit other areas as well like IPTV use/adoption. Never a dull moment in the venture world.