A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity;
an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty. ~Winston Churchill
Historically, yearend has been a slow time in the venture world. From Thanksgiving through New Year, firms focused mostly on wrapping up loose ends in their portfolios. Last year, as echoed in the public markets, ended with a bang. With VC’s looking to pump money out, entrepreneurs have been actively looking for funding. As a result, between existing financings, new deals and Christmas/New Year, I took a break from the world of blogging. However, as they say, Elvis is back in the building.
As blogged, we took a much anticipated (by my kids) cruise through the Caribbean. We signed up to take a cruise on one of the largest boats around. It had everything and this seemed like a brilliant vacation solution until…
In late November, CNN ran a story about a cruise ship coming in early because over 500
passengers had come down with the Novovirus (Norwalk Virus). This wasn’t just any ship…it was our ship. In fact, I have since discovered that the Novovirus has become an increasingly significant issue on cruises because of the high population densities combined with the large percentage of kids on-board (little germ incubators).
Unfortunately, I could not find any bubble suits for the family, so we hoped for the best and did a lot of handwashing. Everything on the ship was oriented around preventing the spread of germs including putting Purell machines everywhere. Ironically, this may have done a disservice since Purell doesn’t kill viruses (just bacteria). So, people were more likely not to wash their hands given that the machines where everywhere.
This experience has me thinking more about the world of viruses and our current behaviors. The Economist wrote a recent article about all of the modeling banks have been doing around flu epidemics including having employees work, trade, etc from home. The CDC reports that 80% of infectious disease is spread by hands. This includes touching salt & pepper shakers, ketchup bottles, hand rails, cash, bathroom faucets, doorknobs and such. Lysol claims to handle viruses as well as other germs. They have an interesting site related to germs and avian flu if interested (can’t hurt to be prepared…).
If we experience a flu epidemic (or a series of smaller outbreaks), it will be interesting to see how everyone responds. For example, what about using currency to buy goods & service? Dollar bills move from hand to hand and are a perfect carrier for germs. Will more and more people begin to use debit/credit cards and, will this lead to a greater push for RFID or biometric payment methods such as the Mobil/McDonald’s wireless payment key fob (which require minimal contact). I assume that there will be a variety of opportunities across the board for infrastructure and services ranging from tele-services to biometrics. Even secondary effects with provide opportunity such as delivery services. As the Chinese proverb goes: “Out of chaos comes opportunity.” If you want to think more deeply about different opportunities, think how your daily life would change if viruses become a greater concern and what behavior you’d change and what increased or new services you’d use.
Who knows if we will be able to avoid this nastiness. Viruses are getting more virulent and bacteria more drug resistant. All of my friends have been commenting on how, in recent years, colds and flu have stretched from a couple of days to weeks.