Choice Is All You Can Control in Life

I was talking with a distraught, young entrepreneur whose week had been rough. He had a much needed prospect go with a competitor and an existing investor reneg on a promise to fund the second tranche of his commitment. He was making himself miserable, thinking about a) the potential failure of his business, b) the injustice of the unethical investor and c) the implications of this on his reputation & what he would have to tell his employees. I asked him how much value he was getting from revisiting these topics after the first time or two (very little) and if his choice to focus on them was the optimal path forward (was not)? I asked him what he had control over & what would help solve the situation the company was in?

“Man does not simply exist but always decides what his existence will be, what he will become the next moment. By the same token, every human being has the freedom to change at any instant.” – Viktor Frankl

The entrepreneur was going down the well-tread path of mistakenly focusing on external factors which he had no control over instead of internal factors which he did. We all seek to control our lives, to achieve our goals and to be happy. However, we confuse that which we can control with that which we can’t all the time. Even worse, we then attach our happiness & contentment to the results of these external factors. Lastly, we then bath all of this in stories & narrative…usually with a negative or victim theme to them. The end result is anxiety, disappoint, poor sleep and missed goals. If I had one piece of advice for my entrepreneurs, my kids and myself, it would be that:

Our choices are all we have control over. Focus all our efforts on this sole freedom: the choices we make in the space between stimulus/events and response.

Despite our desires otherwise, we have little control over our health, others opinions, our environment, our children’s behavior, our management teams, our competitors’ actions or anything else outside our mind.  We do have complete control over how we respond, how we interpret, how we act and what stories we tell ourselves…inside our mind.  We have control over a tight set of choices:

  • Values: what values & virtues to set as True North
  • Beliefs: what stories or facts we believe to be true
  • Focus: what to focus our attention on
  • Action: what action to take next
  • People: which people to reach out to or be with
  • Place: where to physically be

Do we choose to continue on our path forward as we planned or do we choose to let events derail us? Are we conscious of what we are choosing to believe or what stories we are creating or why we decide to do A instead of B or why we are spending time with Fred versus Sally? Or, are we letting these all occur on auto-pilot subconsciously like algorithms?

So, when life, whether as an entrepreneur, a parent, a friend or in a relationship, goes in an unexpected direction, you can let go/put down what is no longer serving you or you can let it drag you into the spin cycle. Ego and pride will cast an array of Oscar worthy storylines. Ask the question: “What is my play now?” Focus on five steps:

  1. Acknowledge the setback or loss
  2. Assess what choices you have control over (see above)
  3. Let go of all that doesn’t serve you/don’t control
  4. Determine you next action (what is my play now?)
  5. Take decisive action (“action dispels anxiety”)

As the famous Stoic philosopher, Epictetus, said:

 “In life our first job is this, to divide and distinguish things into two categories: externals I cannot control, and the choices I make with regard to them I do control. Where will I find good and bad? In me, in my choices.

NKC’s: How I Focus My Year to Create Impact

We all come into the New Year with a fresh start from the holidays and the hope to check off a host of resolutions that will make the coming year a success in some small or large way. While these goals are well intentioned, we often set ourselves up for disappointment in the way we frame them. They are a) not focused on key priorities, b) poorly defined or c) lack actionable steps to make them happen. But, this doesn’t need to be the case.

A few years ago, my coach, Brooke Vuckovic, coined and taught me about using NKC’s: No Kidding Commitments. These are not just rough intentions or resolutions that I hope to get to but a set of Iron Clad commitments which I make to myself (and her) that will be completed by the end of the year. I have slightly modified her approach and added a reflection step.

There are four parts to my process: 1) reflection on the year before, 2) a theme to guide the new year, 3) four to five No Kidding Commitments and 4) a set of actions for each commitment to ensure they happen.

Reflection: Before I can move forward with the new year, I want to reflect on the previous year and use this as a guide/baseline for the upcoming one. I use Reboot’s Reboot Your Year course/process which is simple and straight forward. You get an email with a quote and Koan (paradox/poem) to reflect on and a prompt to journal on for five consecutive days. They include reflection on:
    1) key events that shaped your year
    2) the personal growth resulting from these events
    3) things to let go of that no longer serve you
    4) envisioning what would make a successful year
    5) a letter of advice to yourself  
This is one of the simplest & most effective reflection approaches I’ve come across.

Theme: Next, I create a unifying theme for the year to simply and focus my attention. I choose a word and define what that word means in the context of the coming year.  Since 2019 held a significant amount of change for me and the barrage of ominous news seems unending, I chose the word “FLOW” as my core theme. Athletes know this as being “in the Zone”. Mihaly Csíkszentmihályi defines it as being in “an activity, fully immersed in a feeling of energized focus, full involvement, and enjoyment in the process of the activity.” I’ve defined it contextually for this year as being present (mentally), energized (physically) and open-hearted (emotionally) in all endeavours.

Commitments: After I choose my theme, Brooke has me lay out my No Kidding Commitments for the year. These are the uber-important achievements that will create the greatest impact and deliver the greatest amount of contentment in the next 12 months in the major segments of my life (career, family, service/impact, health, spiritual, finances/home, relationships). Each includes a statement starting with “I will…” and has a clear success state, such as, “I will sell my house and move downtown,” or “I will staff up the LA office and refocus my efforts nationally,” or “I will relaunch my blog, develop my voice and post at least 3x/week”.  The issue with traditional resolutions is that they are sloppy agreements without a logical result.  It’s hard to make progress against something like “I will be more healthy this year.” By setting tangible metrics for your NKCs, it’s easier to track progress and commit to results.

Actions: Once I set my NKCs, I will then put actions against them so that I have line of sight towards realizing each one. I create a project in Things (my task management app) for each NKC and list out the actions to take. For example, To relaunch my blog, I had roughly 10 tasks ranging from securing the domain name to hiring a design firm to setting up the Mailchimp service. I review these to-do’s every week, assess how I am making progress, and determine if there are any changes to the action plan needed.

Through this process, I’ve found I am much clearer on my priorities, accomplish what I set out to achieve and am more content throughout the year.

I’d be curious to hear what any of you do as part of your New Year reflection, resolution and planning process.

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The Three Drivers of Contentment & Motivation at Work

What motivates us to perform and drives contentment at work? Most entrepreneurs struggle with this question. You want success, want to have drive and yet rely too heavily on fear-based or external motivators which often leave a negative residue. The research shows that the most effective motivators are intrinsic and positive.

A champion needs a motivation above and beyond winning.
~ Pat Riley, six-time NBA championship coach (Lakers/Heat)

This post comes from the first part of a lunch & learn session I recently did at one of my former portfolio companies, Graphiq.

What truly motivates us? Three words: Mastery, Autonomy & Purpose. Daniel Pink, in his book Drive, reviewed the sea of research around motivation at work. While factors like money, prestige, punishment or fear can drive us, these pale in comparison to MAP. This video does a great job expanding on this work (worth the 10 min watch):

Mastery: the urge to improve, to have a sense of forward progress. In my Flow framework, this is at the heart of “thriving in the entrepreneurial journey”…defining the core elements of your identity (and focus) and then applying the habits and discipline to master the key skills critical to them. For example, in a work context, this could be “becoming the best salesperson possible” and developing the skills around prospecting, objection handling, relationship management and negotiations. On a personal level, it can be self-mastery and developing a greater sense of equanimity & patience in your daily interactions, better self-care practices (sleep, working out) and becoming less reactive to ups and downs of daily life. As you get better at something, the more rewarding it becomes.

Autonomy: the desire to direct our own lives. As we master our core responsibilities, everyone in the organization or those around us feel more confident in giving us more freedom: when we work, how we work, what we work on, who we work with. Said another way, we experience less micro-management and enjoy more degrees of freedom.

Purpose: The service to something larger than ourselves. When we do something for our own gain, it can motivate us but it is short-lived and often requires another hit (like an addict). Service can be defined in a host of different ways ranging from providing superior care to customers to mentoring junior reports to helping those less fortunate to being a role model for others. The key is that it is not focused on your own gain.

So, to reiterate…three words: Mastery, Autonomy & Purpose.

Contentment
That said, none of us want to win the battle and lose the war.  Too often, we drive ourselves hard only to feel empty or drained at the end. Contentment comes from when we progress towards something better/greater versus escaping from our fears and inadequacies. Let me repeat this as IT IS CORE…focus on motivation around progressing Towards something versus the anxietal default approach of motivation through Escaping our Fears & inadequacies (e.g. the inner voice that says “look asshole, if you don’t do this right, you’ll be a failure or you’ll get fired or you’ll be embarrassed or…).

In Which Wolf Do You Feed?, I discussed the importance of Intrinsic versus Extrinsic motivations.  In his book, Pink argues that effective human motivation is largely intrinsic around mastery, autonomy and purpose. He argues against old models of motivation driven by rewards and fear of punishment, dominated by extrinsic factors such as money.

My challenge: see how you can integrate more positive, intrinsic motivators into your daily work. Define your core role at the firm, laying out the key responsibilities and outputs for this and then commit to building the skills and obtaining the knowledge to be your highest version of this (vs just getting by). Focus on the input(s) versus the output. Start with just one area or skill and go from there. Additionally, write down 2-3 ways in which your work is in service to others. Put these out where you can see them. Focus your motivation on this versus simply gaining recognition or earning more money/bonus.

Which Wolf Do You Feed?

Question: If you lose your fear, do you lose your drive?  It’s a question many entrepreneurs ask themselves.  They seem to have bought into the idea that you can either be content or you can be driven, but those two states cannot coexist. But that idea is flawed.

In reality, we are the stories we tell ourselves, becoming the characters (hero or villain, creator or victim, etc) that we believe and repeat. Once set, these identities and these stories rule our lives. For the same conditions or situation, they determine whether we are thriving or surviving, growing or just getting by, content or disatisfied.  And yet, we often make this selection sub-consciously.

One of the leading experts on peak performance, Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, coined the term “Flow” in his seminal research on top performers. We sometimes call it being “in the zone,” performing at the top of our game and enjoying a sense of mastery and ease rather than enduring the “fear and angst” that can accompany performance.

Mihaly defines Flow as:

“being completely involved in an activity for its own sake. The ego falls away. Time flies. Every action, movement, and thought follows inevitably from the previous one, like playing jazz. Your whole being is involved, and you’re using your skills to the utmost.“

How do we get into it and why do we fall out of it? It’s all about what’s driving you.  Is your motivation internal/intrinsic or external/extrinsic motivation? This is the heart of my blog and my framework below.

At a high level summary, the key to enjoying sustainable success rests on Arete.  This is the Greek concept around striving to become the “highest version” of ourselves as defined by us (intrinsic) and not as defined by others (extrinsic). This is motivation driven by moving towards something aspirational versus moving away from fear.

IDENTITY is at the heart of all of this. If we define our core Identity in empowering ways, we set ourselves up for Flow. If we define ourselves in ego-centric, inflexible ways, we set ourselves up for terrible suffering. Identity has a host of components ranging from core values, narratives, identity statements, behaviors, life segments, etc. We have a core identity and then layers that we use to define ourselves i.e. Mother, wife, boss, coach, athlete, daughter, friend. 

EXPECTATIONS flow from the Identities we choose. These are often subconscious but dictate our lives. When reality shows up differently from our expectations, we begin to feel anxious and suffer. Being conscious around the Identities we chose and understanding the Expectations that arise from this is half the game.

There is a Cherokee story of a chief talking to his grandson. He describes that he has Two Wolves battling inside of him. One is full of ego, greed, anger and pride. The Other is full of truth, hope, empathy and service. When the boy asks “which wolf wins?”, the chief responds “The one that you feed.”

In selecting our identities and in embracing specific narratives about our lives, we feed one of the wolves. Do you work for personal glory or in service to something greater? How critical is external validation to your happiness? Is your inner voice on fire or can you find windows of inner calm?

For example, belieiving that life is a zero sum game and defining yourself as a successful entrepreneur who doesn’t fail can set you up for misery. Things won’t go your way on a daily basis. Setbacks confirm the harshness of your reality and this identity will light up your ego and your fear. Anxiety sets in. “This shouldn’t or can’t be happening.”  “What will people think?”  You might project negative scenarios causing the voice of your inner critic to get louder.  Why? Because you defined yourself and your Identity in a way that plays to ego, requires external validation and has limited flexibility.

However, if you view experience as driving growth, then challenges/setbacks become a means to grow and improve. If you identify as “a resilient & creative entrepreneur who uses persistence in confronting challenges “, your expectations and your interpretations change. In a perfect world, you would welcome these challenges to sharpen your craft and skills. Your value isn’t reflected in what others think of you but rather how you grow and improve your mastery. This is a simplistic example but it shows you the importance of answering: Which wolf do you feed?

 

Challenge: What is your current Identity and Narrative and how can you define what a “Higher Version” looks like to incorporate more intrinsic motivation and Flow?

VC Confidential Is Now Something Ventured

Something Ventured is pretty fully operational! Back in 2005 when I was on the FeedBurner board (Twitter 1.0), I started VC Confidential with two goals: 1) to help entrepreneurs see behind the VC curtain on how we thought/made decisions and 2) to see how the FeedBurner RSS service worked in practice. Dick Costolo (CEO), Brad Feld and Fred Wilson (fellow investors) were great mentors and helped build my base. Over the years, however, I have felt a different calling with my blogging. So much so that I stopped for 2 years while I worked things through.

There are a lot of great blogs out there now around the tactical and practical elements of entrepreneurship and venture. However, what I have seen lacking is a deeper focus on the Entrepreneurial Journey from a more holistic perspective. This became the focus of Something Ventured (.net). Too many people (both entrepreneurs and everyday people) win the battle and loose the war. They survive the day, the month, the start-up, the next financing versus thriving and finding purpose/energy in the Journey. Jerry Colonna has built out Reboot.io around this (highly recommend it for all entrepreneurs). The Life Coach industry is booming for a reason. Why just “survive” when you can “thrive”?  Why hit the finish line burned out when you can have sustainable success?  When does “just getting by for the next three years” end? If I “lose my fear, do I lose my drive”? (No, BTW, just lose less sleep). These are the core questions I’m focused on.

So, there will be a broad array of tactical and practical (how to draft a value proposition, how to layout fundraising narrative, how to build culture, etc) but there will also be a lot on determining North stars & values, embracing radical self-inquiry, setting goals and establishing disciplines/habits to stay in alignment with these. Building skills not just for business for living the “good life”.

So, all of my old post (450+) still sit over at VC Confidential but all future posts will be here on Something Ventured. Tell your friends and share. Thanks!

— Matt

My Venture Covenant With Entrepreneurs

There is a false dogma around the VC/Entrepreneurship relationship…supported by bad behaviors on both sides. You feel a need to manage your investors & board, to not show weakness and present to us. We fail to fully listen, dictate desires or fears and financially optimize our investments. Trust and open communication are our most precious assets which we squander away as a result. In reality, we are on the journey together with a common enemy (Darwin). We must hang to together or “surely, we will all hang separately.” We need to optimize our chances for success, row together, remove unnecessary drama and minimize self-inflicted wounds (the majority cause of pre-mature death). Over the years, I’ve seen both the good and the awful with this relationship. So, here is my rough draft of a Covenant with My Entrepreneurs

MY PROMISE
MY EXPECTATION
Be committed to your personal & the company’s success Be self-aware and embrace your blind spots
Respect that this is your company but provide guardrails & accelerants Don’t self-optimize. Your employees and I depend on you
Show up rationally, empathetically and, “first, do no harm” Don’t let fear or ego dictate how you manage and lead
Be open and frank in my communication Be open and honest in your communications
Seek homework from you to knock down barriers & accelerate growth Say “no thanks” when I’m not helpful
Respect your boundaries Acknowledge when you need help or don’t know
Honor confidentiality Embrace this as a partnership, not as a necessary Evil
Encourage experimentation, quick iterations and respect failure Don’t feel obligated to carry the world on your shoulders

Multiples vs IRR

One of my most popular posts from VC Confidential…

“You Can’t Eat IRR.” — anonymous

I was at a business school today helping judge several business plans. As group after group presented, I saw each make the same mistake as the previous. When they tried to justify the investment from the perspective of the VC, they kept telling us that this was a 40% IRR deal or a 25% IRR as if we had magical IRR thresholds.

The reality is that the venture world is all about multiples and the IRR’s are the results. I don’t know what the original legacy behind this was, but from a practical perspective, it is driven mostly by the fact that we live in a boolean world. Some is also based upon the high net worth legacy of our business. Originally, because pension law did not permit the large institutional investors in, our business was funded by family offices, endowments and foundations. Multi-generational families, while they want high IRR’s, are really looking to double or triple their invested capital.

From a portfolio perspective, if we invest in 10 deals, 4 are tube shots, 2 we fight to get our money back on, 2-3 we get 2-5x on and the 10th deal drives the return (hopefully north of 10x). If we doubled our money in 1 year (100% IRR) but lost all our money on the next deal over 6 years, we aren’t happy (net gain is $0). We don’t care that we made 2x in 1 versus 3 years or lost all of our money over 6 years versus 4 years (this impacts IRR), because we earned 1x on the capital.

We often see complex financial models with discounted cash flows, hurdle rates and such. These are useless. I have never seen a set of financials in an early stage company that ever reflect what Darwin will allow to happen in reality. So, you start your modeling with unreliable numbers. Secondly, what is the beta for an early stage biotech deal, a semi-conductor start-up, etc? Can you assess the risk associated with a given management team? How about a new market space?

Perhaps we are too lazy to try and figure this out, but after decades of effort, the only method that seems to work in the venture world is to target 10x on each early stage deal (3-5x on later stage plays). They all look like the next Microsoft, but eventually, the portfolio of these settles down to the profile above. In the early stage world, if you target, say a 40% IRR, through assuming a number of 5x wins in a compressed period of time, you will likely be out of the business. Your 5x wins, while possibly generating high IRR’s, don’t return enough multiple to pay for the 4 tube shots and 2 break-even deals. Your winners need to deliver 10x.

So, next time you are trying to convince a VC about the merits of your firm, show them how they can make 10x capital on a realistic exit scenario (not how to get a 40% IRR).

Real Is Mandatory

Real Is Mandatory

“Then you better start swimmin’ or you’ll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin’.”
 — Bob Dylan

The venture markets are a-changin’ with investors and public markets demanding rational business models, visibility to profitable growth and inherently sound economics. Companies like Homejoy and Sidecar have gone under while stars like Uber have raised capital at flat valuations from a year ago. Companies going public are now being valued off of EBITDA multiples (what is this?). The old is new again as greed has swung to concern, heading to fear in the venture business as the IPO markets and multiples have compressed.

Historically, this has been when the true breakout companies shine. They are maniacally focused on customer needs, efficient capital use and culture as their less disciplined brethren are swept away in the tides. Trial by fire as they say. Real is mandatory in Darwin’s eyes.

An example of this has been our company, SMS, who crossed a major milestone this week, raising $150m from Goldman Sachs and continues to grow at 50–100% a year while having been increasingly profitable for each of the past 7 years. Few companies have pipelines like theirs approaching several billion dollars. Our journey with SMS Assist has been exceptionally rewarding as we’ve rolled up our sleeves next to an extraordinary team and founder. They have built one of the fastest growing enterprise companies in the country, in one of the grittiest industries through technology…facilities management. SMS’s story is both inspirational and instructional in a world of increasing headwinds and fading unicorns.

The power of the SMS platform is simple. The ONE platform controls over 500,000 sub-contractor technicians performing over 1 million services across 46 services like HVAC repair, landscaping, floor strip & wax to over 100,000 locations. Store managers and home owners simply drop a service request into their residential or corporate portal and ONE’s cloud systems pre-qualifies (e.g. for HVAC, did the circuit breaker trip or is it a real problem), identifies the most qualified sub-contractor based on over 420 tracked metrics, dispatches, manages the service, confirms & rates the service, pays the provider and delivers reporting for over 70 levels at the corporation…all automated without a man in the loop other than an occasional escalation to the call center. While traditional firms or in-sourced solutions rely on call centers and owned/operated fleets with few people on their tech teams, SMS delivers most of this on an automated basis with a 140+ person global technology team. The company has been profitable almost since inception. They run weekly scrums to codify best practices and process learnings into their business logic in the cloud.

One of the greatest barrier to entry/competitive advantage in venture is that rare entrepreneur who has exceptionally deep domain knowledge and strong technology chops going after a gritty industry with a technology and elegance. They are rare. Flawed competitors fall into two major categories. One is the star technology team which doesn’t appreciate the traditions, relationships or behaviors of the industry. The other is the industry team with deep domain expertise that simply automates existing processes with complex, uncompelling technology. Mike Rothman is a true “unicorn” and visionary along with his star lieutenant, Marc Shiffman. Mike has a brilliance to see things that others simply can’t. They are exceptionally detailed oriented, highly complimentary to each other and able to translate complex business needs to technical requirement with tenacious speed while also seeing a larger strategic vision for the future. They also have a palpable sense of inevitability in their belief and have fused talent from industry, the Valley and the Midwest.

While SMS has a lot of hard work ahead of it to realize its full potential, it has done a number of things right:

  • conviction…when you talk with Mike Rothman, he has a Steve Jobs like inevitability about him. When there is setback, he figures out alternative plans A, B & C. He redefines tenacity. Jim Clark (founder WebMD, Netscape, etc) used to say “Great companies are built. They are willed into existence”
  • know your core advantage…early on, they realized their “tip of the spear” was technology and focused heavy resources on it, ramping the tech team from 10 to 140+. They are continuously automating and building business logic into the cloud which allows them to handle more locations & services with existing infrastructure. More locations/services gives greater density and lower operating costs, leading to lower pricing with strong profitability.
  • hire strong…Mike has hired strong management around him. Many founders under-hire, feeling intimidated. Mike has brought on stars like Shiffman from Ron Perlman, Matt Renner (top Oracle sales head), Mike Travalini (top RE ops manager from Starwood) and others.
  • focus…while the SMS platform could expand into Industrial or other sectors, they have stayed focused on where they can compound advantage/density in retail and now residential. Too often, firms grab opportunity wherever they can and do nothing well.
  • rapid execution…this team moves from concept/opportunity to implementation and test with significant speed. They rolled out a corporate portal for retail store managers to trigger/manage services in only 6 weeks. Many would over design this and take 6–8 months. Simplicity is king.

SMS has been a great partnership with Pritzker. They quickly follow-up on resources and opportunities we bring them (or promptly say “no thanks”). We introduced a top technologist and operator to them and they engaged him, pivoted their platform to the cloud, rolled out mobile and expanded their team. We introduced a major institutional REIT to them (SMS was only in retail at the time) and they rolled out a major residential offering, staffed up a residential team and ramped business to nine figures in less than a year. We introduced a top enterprise sales advisor to them and they re-engineered their sales organization, hired a top SRO from Oracle and brought on 10 “chairman club” calibre sales people from industry and the Valley. This is how culture, vision, execution and responsiveness all meet.

We love our companies that bring next generation solutions with real business models to real customers. Whether it is companies bringing new technology to old industries like Fleetmatics (NYSE: FLTX), TicketsNow (acquired by Ticketmaster), Eved or technology firms bringing innovation to emerging fields (Viv and x.ai in AI; Mapbox and Airmap in GeoSpatial/Drones; Augury in IoT; SpaceX in transport or Facebook in Social). Real is Mandatory and Substance is King.

These times are a-changin’. Business models and fundamentals will increasingly be tested. Many in this market have not been through a down turn nor can fully appreciate the magnitude of its implications. Whether you have a month or two years, take this time to pressure test your business and assess if you’ll be the benefactor or the victim in the coming cycle. Also, look around and see if you have the people around you (team, advisors, investors, board members, partners, etc) that will help you thrive during these times. As Warren Buffett always says, “when the tide pulls out, you see who is wearing a bathing suit”.

The 15 Year Tech Cycle: Reloading for Another Tour

“If you can see it, it isn’t the revolution.” — Steve Jurvetson

I wrote the following post in Nov, 2008. It demonstrated two things. 1) Tech and the stock market have a little dance they do…tech has roughly a 15 year cycle and the stock market has roughly a 7-8 year one and 2) tech is non-linear…just as FB/social was about to take off, many thought cleantech was going to be the next bellweather sector. If you can see it, it isn’t the revolution. It is possible that we are going to skip through this current cycle into a second one that goes to 2021 or 2022 due to the continuing decline in interest rates.

The markets in 2008 were very different. The banks were overexposed with bad real estate debt. Their current balance sheets are relatively clean. It is only when the banks get into trouble that the economy truly contracts as they pull in credit.  I wrote in June 2008 that I thought the venture/market cycle was coming to an end and this one in Nov 2008. Today, lot of people are going to cash and getting nervous about the market this year. Fortune 500’s are cutting ad spending for Q1 (some significantly) and I recently spoke to two elder ladies in a hotel lobby who were “short the market”. Also, more VC money was invested in 2014 than any year since 2000. So, while I believe in the 15 year tech cycle (e.g. things go boom in the night in the coming year), with this many people looking for it, it seldom hits. That said, probably not a good time to aggressively put money out and a good time to get your house in order. I’ll revisit as the year progresses…the IPO market vs. last private round valuations is a key metric to monitor.

From Nov, 2008:

“As the bad news keeps pouring in, a lot of people are wondering what we can expect in the coming years. Additionally, everyone is trying to figure out what hope exists. Well, I’ll give two thoughts on this (briefly).

First, the world of technology is driven by two factors: the laws of exponentials and the Black Swan. Progress does not occur linearly but exponentially. We can expect to see changes the magnitude of the past 100 years in just the next 20 years. This means a lot of people are going to a) be really busy and b) be dramatically better off. These changes will come from places you can’t predict (Black Swans). Market crashes and negative developments are not the only unexpected six sigma events.

Second, markets run in roughly 7 years cycles and technology in 15 year waves. Vacuum tubes to main frames to mini-computers (DEC) to PC’s (Apple/Microsoft) to the Internet. The next wave, then, should start in 2010-11 and hit full force in 2015-16. Many in the business (us, Kleiner, etc) feel this will be in Cleantech. The energy market is 10-20x the IT market. We are not talking about billion dollar markets but trillion dollar ones. There will be a lot of casualties but some enormous wins.

So, there us no doubt that life is really brutal today. But, prepare and get ready for enormous, explosive market opportunities. It’s going to be mindblowing.

So, I stick my neck out again typing on my small iPhone. I declared the old venture cycle dead last June. I am declaring the the next cycle, even bigger than the former, will kick in during 2010 with foundations forming by the end of next year. I also believe we will see 30-40% of remaining venture firms will not survive to see this through (food for another post)…

The Key Israeli Story: StartUp Nation

Larger Post coming…without appreciating the context (yesterday’s post), it is hard to fully grasp the origin nor significance of the tech renaissance that is taking place in Israel.  One has to see it to fully appreciate it. Much like Boston and Silicon Valley had its origins in military R&D and culture, Israel’s tech ecosystem also comes out of this. It has had innovation after innovation emerge from its advanced defense work. For example, ICQ (not AOL messenger) launched instant messaging onto the world and originally came from te Israeli Defense Force’s internal uses. Same with voicemail and many other innovations. Israel has some of the world’s best minds in Big Data, IT security software, messenging, telecom infrastructure, etc.  A lot of this is described in the book, Start-Up Nation by Dan Senor and Saul Singer. Some of the numbers are eye-popping…one start-up per 2,000 people in the country for example. Necessity is the mother of invention.

Equally important is the Israeli resilience & tolerance for risk.  This is at the heart of the entrepreneurship.  When living in the charged environment discussed yesterday, you can’t help but to grow up with a DNA that accepts risk/change’s role in life and embraces the necessity of innovation.

I have to run to Tel Aviv’s accelerator, SOSA (their equivalent to Chicago’s 1871). More to come.