"The best way to understand the dramatic transformation…is to think
of them as epidemics. Ideas and products and messages and behaviors
spread just like viruses do."
— Malcolm Gladwell
We, in the entrepreneurial world, live or die based upon Tipping Points. Al Gore is enjoying a rebirth talking about global warming tipping points. Malcolm Gladwell wrote a best seller called the Tipping Point. Venture capitalists talk about market inflection points. Chaos theory, complexity theory, self-forming networks…the list goes on.
The Midwest technology community, or any region’s for that matter, hinges on Tipping Points. Gladwell lays out a very interesting framework and San Diego provides a great example of how this works. Gladwell’s core elements include self-organizing networks, stickiness and context. Ian Kaplan gives a great summary of this framework.
When you examine a social network (or technology corridor), you will see that there is a person or company at the center, which acts as a hub and is central in the spreading of information. It is central, well connected, knows the right people and knows what is going on in the network. Gladwell refers to this as the Law of the Few and describes how Paul Revere played this role and was central in raising the resistance in the American Revolution. In La Jolla, Hybritech was the core to that region’s biotech explosion. Before Hybritech, there was a lot of technology (Scripp’s Institute, Salk Institute, UCSD, etc) but few companies. Once Hybritech was sold to Eli Lilly, its managers spun out to form their own companies. The key, however, is that these managers were connected to each and had a common legacy. By the second generation of successful companies, again many connected to each other, the region hit a tipping point.
Gladwell’s more interesting element is not about how these networks take-off, but rather when they do. He describes how "the Stickiness Factor" can have a significant impact by pushing the system out of equilibrium. The more contact that factor has, the more impact will result. It gives that influence significant leverage. In his example, he describes how disease normally remains in check. The number of people getting sick and those recovering basically offset each other. However, at certain periods, such as around holidays, people interact more with each other. Soon, more people are ill than are getting better and the system begins to spin towards epidemic. In the technology world, this equates to the rate of new companies entering versus leaving the ecosystem. When these companies have common touch points or legacy, like with the flu, the network spreads more rapidly, heading towards “epidemic” (in a good way).
Lastly, he describes the Power of Context and how visual cues & other environmental factors can have such a dramatic impact on a change in behavior and in the development of these networks. He lays out how eliminating graffiti and cleaning up the streets have been shown to significantly reduce crime. People begin to view their environment differently. It’s like my kitchen. As soon as two or three dirty dishes remain in the sink, it signals to everyone that it’s okay to leave dishes there and soon the sink is overflowing with dishes. The Tipping Point has been hit. The same happens with celebrating success stories (or promoting repeated failures). The community begins to view itself increasingly one way or the other.
So what does this mean? It means that a technology community can take off quickly, triggered by simple elements. Social networks, information flow and connectivity are critical in governing the rate and suddenness of this development. Furthermore, how the community views itself and takes care of itself sets the stage or “context” as Gladwell calls it. While you can never predict exactly when a community will go “viral”, you can continue to stress and build upon the core elements that you know eventually lead to it happening: building social hubs, increasing interaction/stickiness and promoting a positive communal image & environment. We have a ways to go, but we are definitely heading in the right direction on all counts.
One last, unrelated point, Al Gore gives perhaps one of the most chilling examples (pardon the pun below) of a Tipping Point in his new movie “An Inconvenient Truth”. Global warming can continue for some time without a noticeable impact or difference. However, at some point, the ice shelves at the arctic, Antarctic or Greenland warm up enough and fall into the ocean. This would supposedly raise the sea level worldwide 20ft. This presents a small issue to a couple of parts of the world (like NYC…). Furthermore, while the ice reflects 90% of solar heat, the water absorbs a significant percentage of it (raising ocean temperatures). So, once we hit the Tipping Point, not only do you suffer (or benefit) the impact of the primary factor, but also from the secondary effects as well. Let’s hope Chicago becomes a tech haven before it becomes a seaside destination…