Hypothesis: Do You Know the Bet You’re Making?

Since the future is unknowable, by definition, we are all making bets in our life, testing hypotheses and probabilities. However, often, we aren’t aware we are making a bet or what that bet is. As a result, we don’t prioritize nor focus on the key things. This applies to careers, relationships, schools or starting companies as well. When we underwrite new deals at Pritzker, we clearly state in a sentence what is our core Hypothesis & bet we are making. 

“I don’t know where I’m going but I’m making great time”

A Core Hypothesis is demarcated by the significance of the outcome. This is the bet of all bets whereby if you are right, you are off to the races and, if wrong, you are road kill. It integrates the key success factor(s) critical to win. From this, you can determine what are the three sub-factors that can kill you and the 2-3 sub-factors that will massively scale your business. Focus all of your time & money on these.

Why is this important? If you don’t know the bet, you won’t set the right priorities nor hire the right people nor properly define your product specs for fit. You risk taking the wrong ground and winning the battle but losing war. People/companies err in three ways:

  • Death 1: assume the wrong hypothesis (e.g. You think it is developing the best consumer app & owning the customer when it is actually owning the channel which gives you scale)
  • Death 2: right hypothesis but poor execution
  • Death 3: right hypothesis but defined the wrong sub-factors (e.g. what can kill or scale you)

When we invested in Coinbase, our core hypothesis was that interest in crypto would continue to grow over time but people would want a simple, reliable and trusted brand as their gateway into this world. Given how complex the regulatory environment is along with challenges around security/hacking and actual trade mechanics, Coinbase was in a key place to consolidate share and become the Facebook of crypto (the main gateway in the US). Investing in providing the simplest user interface, the most reliable backend trading platform and world class regulatory compliance and security infrastructure, Coinbase would expand share. If the core bet turned out to be that people just wanted the cheapest, low-fee solution with little regard for “trusted brand”, then our investment would end poorly.  So far, so good. Coinbase continues to distance itself in the US from other retail & custody players with increasing market share.

So, whether it is your next career move, your start-up or your next relationship, ask yourself if you know the bet you are making and what is at the core to prove out that hypothesis. As John Doerr used to say, know the three things that can make, the three things that can tank you and spend all your money on those.