"You say you want a revolution…We all want to change the world"
— Beatles
Mary Meeker, Morgan Stanley’s Internet Diva from the Bubble, is back and firing on all cylinders. She gave a great presentation at the Stanford Graduate School of Business on "Global Technology/Internet Trends". I highly recommend it as it is full of a broad array of interesting statistics and analysis on the next technology wave. Some of the more interesting facts:
1) the US prominence in consumer Internet use is waning quickly. North America represented 66% of Internet users in 1995 and only 23% in 2005. More and more activity, market focus and innovation will be taking place overseas.
2) technology often follows a boom, bust, boom pattern. Google, Yahoo!, eBay, Yahoo! Japan and Amazon had, cumulatively, a $2B market cap at IPO, $178B value at peak in 3/00, a $32B value at trough in 10/02 and a $262B market cap as of 11/05. Buy when there is blood in the streets as they say…
3) we are entering into, perhaps, the biggest of all technology cycles led by PC Internet (broadband) and the Mobile Internet. Previous cycles were Mainframe –> Minicomputer–>PC–>PC Internet (Narrow band). Now add –> PC Internet (Broadband)–> Mobile Internet.
4) Driving these two cycles are a) broadband penetration (hitting 25-30% in 2004) and b) 3G penetration (expected to hit 25-30% in 2007). When people are able get high speed service to their phones and laptops wirelessly, we will truly see information become untethered. Seamless mobility…
5) Two key risks threatening are:
a) the lack of engineering students in the US (heard this before???)
b) litigation: 2001, US industry spend more on tort litigation ($205B) than on R&D ($184B).
6) The PC-Mobile Device is the next "client-server". Users make changes and control preferences on their PC which pushes to mobile (or provides for abbreviated versions of content).
7) VoIP, IP Video, User Generated Content…the list goes on of "game changing" technologies enabled by broadband to home and mobile.
8) US Ad spending on Internet continues to rise, slowly displacing each of the traditional channels.
9) watch the kids for future of information and technology usage…
Click on the link above and check out the full 58 page presentation. It is one of the most interesting and insightful presentations I have come across in a long time.
So what is the incentive for US students to go into engineering? The current salary structure pushes people the other way.
It’s not a hypothetical – I graduated from a top 5 engineering school in 1996 in the top 20% of my class, and got my masters from the same school in 2001. Now I’m in a top 5 MBA program and downplaying my engineering skills in my resume because it doesn’t pay off to be in engineering.
It’s not just me – most of the people that I’m still in touch with from engineering school are headed the same way. Let Asia have engineering, marketing and sales take a bigger cut of the pie anyway.
So what is the incentive for US students to go into engineering? The current salary structure pushes people the other way.
It’s not a hypothetical – I graduated from a top 5 engineering school in 1996 in the top 20% of my class, and got my masters from the same school in 2001. Now I’m in a top 5 MBA program and downplaying my engineering skills in my resume because it doesn’t pay off to be in engineering.
It’s not just me – most of the people that I’m still in touch with from engineering school are headed the same way. Let Asia have engineering, marketing and sales take a bigger cut of the pie anyway.
An excellent presentation, indeed. As to the (continuing) shortage of engineers and the comments of the previous post, I have opinions from two perspectives:
Individual level: Engineering is one of, if not the highest average starting salaries for a bachelor’s degree. My opinion is that fewer people go into, or stay with, Engineering because of its difficulty (which is tied into how well high school curriculums have prepared them), and less so because other majors pay more. Sure, there is a money incentive to get a Harvard MBA, but not everyone gets in. Everyone should want to be a heart surgeon from Johns Hopkins – much better pay than an engineer or even MBA’s. In short, I do not think that American students avoid getting engineering degrees due to low pay or low job demand.
Macro level: I think the overall talent/skill level of a country’s populus at some point will effect its productivity, and eventually the overall standard of living – along with wealth creation/accumulation. Ceding engineering (or manufacturing) to other parts of the world is a risky endeavor for a country or a corporation. I’m a fan of free markets, but it would behoove us to get the government involved in “incentivizing” some changes to the two risks you mention.
An excellent presentation, indeed. As to the (continuing) shortage of engineers and the comments of the previous post, I have opinions from two perspectives:
Individual level: Engineering is one of, if not the highest average starting salaries for a bachelor’s degree. My opinion is that fewer people go into, or stay with, Engineering because of its difficulty (which is tied into how well high school curriculums have prepared them), and less so because other majors pay more. Sure, there is a money incentive to get a Harvard MBA, but not everyone gets in. Everyone should want to be a heart surgeon from Johns Hopkins – much better pay than an engineer or even MBA’s. In short, I do not think that American students avoid getting engineering degrees due to low pay or low job demand.
Macro level: I think the overall talent/skill level of a country’s populus at some point will effect its productivity, and eventually the overall standard of living – along with wealth creation/accumulation. Ceding engineering (or manufacturing) to other parts of the world is a risky endeavor for a country or a corporation. I’m a fan of free markets, but it would behoove us to get the government involved in “incentivizing” some changes to the two risks you mention.
KV – it sounds like money is your only motivator. Most engineers don’t choose to go engineering school for the money – they do it to become innovators. I’m sorry to hear you are downplaying your engineering background. I actually think an engineer with an MBA has the most lethal arsenal of skills in the world today. They also make for the best entrepreneurs or senior management at most technology companies.
KV – it sounds like money is your only motivator. Most engineers don’t choose to go engineering school for the money – they do it to become innovators. I’m sorry to hear you are downplaying your engineering background. I actually think an engineer with an MBA has the most lethal arsenal of skills in the world today. They also make for the best entrepreneurs or senior management at most technology companies.
To the points above, I had a very strong science & math background in high school but drifted into a liberal arts mode in college, taking little math or science after freshman year. It is one of my great regrets that I did not maintain a strong scientific element during these years.
I agree that the greatest impediment we have to increasing engineering majors is economics. Lawyers and hedge fund managers make too much money to ignore. That said, the great fortunes are made by the innovators and entrepreneurs…
To the points above, I had a very strong science & math background in high school but drifted into a liberal arts mode in college, taking little math or science after freshman year. It is one of my great regrets that I did not maintain a strong scientific element during these years.
I agree that the greatest impediment we have to increasing engineering majors is economics. Lawyers and hedge fund managers make too much money to ignore. That said, the great fortunes are made by the innovators and entrepreneurs…
I think the greatest impediment in general is pure speculation of non- productive assets. When speculation becomes the mainstream form of surviving as has occurred the last several years with housing, commmodities, hedge funds and other financial instruments, the system usually ends with a financial crisis of some sort. Speculation never ends well for the masses.
I think the greatest impediment in general is pure speculation of non- productive assets. When speculation becomes the mainstream form of surviving as has occurred the last several years with housing, commmodities, hedge funds and other financial instruments, the system usually ends with a financial crisis of some sort. Speculation never ends well for the masses.
I think the greatest impediment in general is pure speculation of non- productive assets. When speculation becomes the mainstream form of surviving as has occurred the last several years with housing, commmodities, hedge funds and other financial instruments, the system usually ends with a financial crisis of some sort. Speculation never ends well for the masses.
I think the greatest impediment in general is pure speculation of non- productive assets. When speculation becomes the mainstream form of surviving as has occurred the last several years with housing, commmodities, hedge funds and other financial instruments, the system usually ends with a financial crisis of some sort. Speculation never ends well for the masses.
Becareful, this woman is one of the main creator of the internet speculative economic bubble. Take a look at John Cassidy’s “dot.con” book.
Becareful, this woman is one of the main creator of the internet speculative economic bubble. Take a look at John Cassidy’s “dot.con” book.
If you look at the objective numbers and statistics, you can gleem some interesting info from Meeker’s work. Everyone got into trouble when they looked at outrageous numbers (P/E, etc) and jumped headfirst into the market. It is a good point that the buyer should beware always. I also agree that when a society is focused more on betting than on making, it does not end well.
If you look at the objective numbers and statistics, you can gleem some interesting info from Meeker’s work. Everyone got into trouble when they looked at outrageous numbers (P/E, etc) and jumped headfirst into the market. It is a good point that the buyer should beware always. I also agree that when a society is focused more on betting than on making, it does not end well.