Chicago Honors Katrina The Hard Way

On August 23rd, ironically on the second anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, a tornado hit the western Chicago suburbs and a micro burst swung through the northern suburbs where I live and work. By the time the storm had passed with its 70+ mph winds, Winnetka looked like a scene out of the movie, Twister.  Nearly every third or fourth street was shut down due to fallen trees and crushed cars.

Being the bright, proactive venture capitalist, I had installed a backup battery on our sump pump in case power went out during a storm. It worked perfectly for the first 6 hours. Unfortunately, we lost power for over 2 days. Like with my portfolio companies, another lesson learned…  Most of the North Shore of Chicago is going out and buying the propane driven generators for their houses albeit a bit late.

These two poor cars were passing when a tree (about 2 feet in diameter) snapped in half, was carried up and over 10 feet by the wind and dropped down crushing both cars.
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Rain came down faster than any time in Winnetka history, flooding many houses and streets.
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This three foot diameter tree was snapped in half like a twig and blocked our street.
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Just about one in four trees along major streets either snapped or were pulled out of the ground like the one below across the street from our house.
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Our golf club lost over 100 trees including this tree on the 10th hole. This Willow has a 12+ foot root system. It was blown over, crushing the paddle court and two cars behind it.
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Having gone through a "gentle" version of a disaster, I can better appreciate what New Orleans went through two years ago. Basements are ruined throughout town due to fresh water, not the salt water that submerged much of the city for weeks. We had 70+ mph winds that ripped up trees versus the 175 mph winds that tore off roofs and destroyed buildings. And, we were out of power for a couple of days while they were down for months in some parts. It was quite a surreal 4 days for us but things have gotten back to normal pretty quickly. New Orleans is not so lucky, having gone from the 16th largest city in the US (nearly 500,000 people) to just over 220,000 today.

No global warming Mr Bush????

Chicago Honors Katrina The Hard Way

On August 23rd, ironically on the second anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, a tornado hit the western Chicago suburbs and a micro burst swung through the northern suburbs where I live and work. By the time the storm had passed with its 70+ mph winds, Winnetka looked like a scene out of the movie, Twister.  Nearly every third or fourth street was shut down due to fallen trees and crushed cars.

Being the bright, proactive venture capitalist, I had installed a backup battery on our sump pump in case power went out during a storm. It worked perfectly for the first 6 hours. Unfortunately, we lost power for over 2 days. Like with my portfolio companies, another lesson learned…  Most of the North Shore of Chicago is going out and buying the propane driven generators for their houses albeit a bit late.

These two poor cars were passing when a tree (about 2 feet in diameter) snapped in half, was carried up and over 10 feet by the wind and dropped down crushing both cars.
Img_0966_2

Rain came down faster than any time in Winnetka history, flooding many houses and streets.
Img_0995_1

This three foot diameter tree was snapped in half like a twig and blocked our street.
Img_0961_1

Just about one in four trees along major streets either snapped or were pulled out of the ground like the one below across the street from our house.
Img_0983_1

Our golf club lost over 100 trees including this tree on the 10th hole. This Willow has a 12+ foot root system. It was blown over, crushing the paddle court and two cars behind it.
Img_0988_1

Having gone through a "gentle" version of a disaster, I can better appreciate what New Orleans went through two years ago. Basements are ruined throughout town due to fresh water, not the salt water that submerged much of the city for weeks. We had 70+ mph winds that ripped up trees versus the 175 mph winds that tore off roofs and destroyed buildings. And, we were out of power for a couple of days while they were down for months in some parts. It was quite a surreal 4 days for us but things have gotten back to normal pretty quickly. New Orleans is not so lucky, having gone from the 16th largest city in the US (nearly 500,000 people) to just over 220,000 today.

No global warming Mr Bush????

Buckle Up

This summer has been a crazy one for me and I have, as one friend wrote, "gone dark" since early June. So, as I begin to sprout prose again here, why not jump back in with a depressing post on the debt debacle & its impact on the our entrepreneurial world…

Over the past year, money has poured into the buyout world.  Enabled by cheap debt, buyout firms have been taking companies private at a eye-popping rate. Many observers have noticed the comparison of this activity to the venture bubble of 1999-2000. Many pension fund managers have justified this insane ramp, stating that these companies are cash flow positive or that the public market is sizable or that “this time is different”. However, when you buy firms at 9-11x EBITDA and use significant leverage, everything will eventually end in tears.

Well, the punch bowl has formally been taken away this month. With the growing credit crisis spreading from the sub-prime debacle, banks have dramatically ratcheted back their lending terms and activity. The public markets, having continued their ascent driven by the ever-present buyout offers, are now growing more volatile. The failed UAL buyout triggered a dark period in the markets in the late 1980’s when I was on Wall Street and it looks like an encore performance is happening now with deals like Chrystler stalling. As Roach over at Pequot mentioned, brace yourself when the first major buyout deal files for Chapter 11.

Bill Gross, the Sage of the Debt world at Pimco, wrote in his Enough Is Enough article (worth the read):
"But the Blackstones, the KKRs, and the hedge funds of recent years also climbed to the top of the pile on the willing backs of fixed income lenders too meek and too passive to ask for a part of the action. Covenant-lite deals and low yields were accepted by money managers as if they were prisoners in an isolation ward looking forward to their daily gruel passed unemotionally three times a day through the cellblock window. "Here, take this" their investment banker jailers seemed to say, "and be glad that you’ve got at least something to eat!"…Well the caloric content of the gruel in recent years has been barely life supporting and unhealthy to boot – sprinkled with calls and PIKS and options that allowed borrowers to lever and transfer assets at will. As for the calories, high yield spreads dropped to the point of Treasuries + 250 basis points or LIBOR + 200. Readers can sense the severity of the diet relative to risk by simply researching historical annual high yield default rates (5%), multiplying that by loss of principal in bankruptcy (60%), and coming up with an expected loss of 3% over the life of future loans. At LIBOR + 250 in other words, high yield lenders were giving away money!

Investors are nervous that the sub-prime credit issues will spread to other credit sectors. They are asking if S&P/Moody’s missed the boat on assessing the sub-prime risk, then they probably have missed in the other sectors as well. Banks are balking at the terms proposed by recent large buyouts, despite some serious strong-arming tactics from the likes of KKR. And, debt origination is plummeting. Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO’s) which peaked at $42B, have fallen to under $3B as bank credit groups retrench. Less mortgage credit and less buyout credit will impact both corporate revenue streams and market values.

So, what does this all mean:
1)    increasing volatility in the public markets as investors try to figure out if changes represent the coming of Armageddon or a fantastic buying opportunity.
2)    tighter credit guidelines and terms as banks and debt markets demand more return and more protection for the risks they are taking (yes, the laws of gravity are returning)
3)    increasing difficulties in the buyout world as firms have to put more equity into deals while still paying higher EBITDA multiples due to competition. It will turn into a blood bath.
4)    junk debt spreads will widen significantly as bankruptcies soar.
5)    the IPO market will begin to soften again as the public markets try to figure things out. Quality companies will still go out but bankers will be increasingly selective.
6)    later stage venture investors will begin to tighten terms.

This all said, should things go south, it will provide a strong opportunity for entrepreneurs who are disciplined. Venture capital and angel capital will be increasingly more cautious in backing new competitors into spaces. Should market conditions hit truly rocky times, weaker competitors will be pruned. This is why breakout companies such as Cisco often have their genesis or ascension coming out of difficult times. Focus on your core business and customer value proposition. Get to cash flow break even as quickly as possible. And, spend every penny as if it were your last. Buckle up for some interesting times. The markets may not necessarily go through major corrections, but investors are going to be reminded that there is risk associated with leverage, alternative asset classes and excessive liquidity.

Sea of Change

One of benefits of being in venture capital is that you can see activity and trends across a broad array of industries. Additionally, you spend a considerable amount of time talking to people about deals, career changes, financings or general assistance. You can also get a sense of how certain companies are doing based upon how many resumes are coming out of the firm or how difficult it is to recruit people from that firm.

Over the last four months or so, I have been noticing a different kind of trend occurring than I have seen in the past. Normally, we see a lot of people looking to move within their industry or to get into private equity. However, I am now seeing a lot of people seriously reconsidering what they are doing and whether they should remain in their given profession. A lot of this is being driven by fatigue or disillusionment. This includes a number of people in the private equity world (and other investment circles) looking else where. In other words, there is a lot of soul searching going on right now, much, much more than I have seen in the past.

I believe this is being driven by the maturity of the current economic cycle as well as by the continuing swell of liquidity into all investment sectors. It has become harder and harder to find undervalued real estate, buyout targets, product markets and such. As people grind harder and harder to drive returns (or profits), the future upside has become increasingly less apparent. This is a sign of an extended market.

Now, I am not saying that a correction is around the corner or that I see anything in particular. However, I can say that the overall conditions remain increasingly unstable with an occasional upswing or downswing in the markets.

So, if you happen to be one of those who is seriously reconsidering your chosen path, you are not alone. It is harder to do what you need to do (unless you are a corn farmer). On one hand, I would comment that life is too short to not be doing something you love or were made for. These challenging times can create a needed forcing mechanism to move. However, on the other, I would say that every industry has its cycles and even preferred professions will hit very difficult times. Persevere through these downturns and you are in a strong position on the recovery. Only you really know what you love to do (and have the skill set for) so as to determine which course is right for you.

Brian Kim has a very popular post for a quick exercise on “How to Find What You Love to Do“.

FeedBurner Pro Stats for Free Now

I have been using the FeedBurner stats PRO and MyBrand services since day one and paid the monthly fee. FeedBurner recently announced, in Google customary fashion, that these both will now be available for free to all users. Definitely worth checking out if you are using or have considered using FeedBurner’s core service to manage your feeds. As their release states:

FreeBurner for Everyone

One of the many benefits that FeedBurner publishers will enjoy now that FeedBurner is part of the Google family is a little something we like to call, "more for free!" Beginning today, two of FeedBurner’s previously for-pay services, TotalStats and MyBrand, will be free.

Yep, free. Not in the sense of soaring high above the clouds or recently sprung from the hoosegow, but free like you’ll no longer gladly be billed on Tuesday for a burned feed today. We suspect this will be welcome news to the 450,000+ of you using many of our other free services, but understanding that your feed is your feed, you will need to activate these newly freed-up services in order to partake in their awesomeness.

FeedBurner Stats PRO
PRO is feed analytics taken to the next level. You will now have access to the number of people who have viewed or clicked individual content items in your feed and "Reach," which estimates the daily number of subscribers who interacted with your feed content. You can turn this on by signing in to your account, navigating to the Analyze tab and heading to the FeedBurner Stats PRO section. Click the "Item Views" checkbox to activate these PRO features.

MyBrand
The MyBrand service (also PRO-level) is located under the "My Account" tab after you’ve signed in. MyBrand lets you maintain consistency between your feed address and your hosted website’s domain, if matchy-matchy is your thing. For example, rather than using feeds.feedburner.com/MyFeedName, your MyBrand-ed feed address can be feeds.myexcellentdomain.net/MyFeedName. To get started with MyBrand, sign into FeedBurner, click the "My Account" link in the upper left-hand corner, and then click "MyBrand".

Previous "PRO" customers will not be charged for the month of June 2007 and beyond. Also, after newly activating either of these features or services, you’ll notice a nifty new "PRO" badge next to your feed(s) on My Feeds page.

Welcome to FreeBurner!

FeedBurner Pro Stats for Free Now

I have been using the FeedBurner stats PRO and MyBrand services since day one and paid the monthly fee. FeedBurner recently announced, in Google customary fashion, that these both will now be available for free to all users. Definitely worth checking out if you are using or have considered using FeedBurner’s core service to manage your feeds. As their release states:

FreeBurner for Everyone

One of the many benefits that FeedBurner publishers will enjoy now that FeedBurner is part of the Google family is a little something we like to call, "more for free!" Beginning today, two of FeedBurner’s previously for-pay services, TotalStats and MyBrand, will be free.

Yep, free. Not in the sense of soaring high above the clouds or recently sprung from the hoosegow, but free like you’ll no longer gladly be billed on Tuesday for a burned feed today. We suspect this will be welcome news to the 450,000+ of you using many of our other free services, but understanding that your feed is your feed, you will need to activate these newly freed-up services in order to partake in their awesomeness.

FeedBurner Stats PRO
PRO is feed analytics taken to the next level. You will now have access to the number of people who have viewed or clicked individual content items in your feed and "Reach," which estimates the daily number of subscribers who interacted with your feed content. You can turn this on by signing in to your account, navigating to the Analyze tab and heading to the FeedBurner Stats PRO section. Click the "Item Views" checkbox to activate these PRO features.

MyBrand
The MyBrand service (also PRO-level) is located under the "My Account" tab after you’ve signed in. MyBrand lets you maintain consistency between your feed address and your hosted website’s domain, if matchy-matchy is your thing. For example, rather than using feeds.feedburner.com/MyFeedName, your MyBrand-ed feed address can be feeds.myexcellentdomain.net/MyFeedName. To get started with MyBrand, sign into FeedBurner, click the "My Account" link in the upper left-hand corner, and then click "MyBrand".

Previous "PRO" customers will not be charged for the month of June 2007 and beyond. Also, after newly activating either of these features or services, you’ll notice a nifty new "PRO" badge next to your feed(s) on My Feeds page.

Welcome to FreeBurner!

TCI Chief Donates $460m to Venture Philanthropy

In addition to Bill Gates, one of the largest influencers in the venture philanthropy world is Chris Hohn, who is one of the most successful hedge fund managers in the world. His fund has been closed for some time and he donates a significant portion of its profits to his Foundation. He is known for his activist style of investing on the hedge fund, and, like the Robin Hood Foundation, is starting to do so on the philanthropy side. It will be interesting to see the direction he takes going forward as his Foundation, now at over $1.4B, has the ability to move the needle significantly in the venture philanthropy world…

TCI chief donates £230m to his charity

By James Mackintosh in London

Published: July 1 2007 22:02 | Last updated: July 2 2007 00:05

Chris Hohn gave £230m ($460m) to his charitable foundation last year, making the activist hedge fund manager one of Britain’s most generous philanthropists, with even more expected to be given this year.

Mr Hohn, founder of The Children’s Investment Fund, told investors in New York two weeks ago that the foundation – run by his wife Jamie Cooper-Hohn – had passed $1bn, less than five years after it was set up.

Mr Hohn’s donations put him at the forefront of venture philanthropy, which has seen financiers and businessmen bring entrepreneurial skills and hedge fund-style activism to charities.

His philanthropy contrasts with the aggressive activism of TCI, which helped block Deutsche Börse’s bid for the London Stock Exchange and led to the downfall of Werner Seifert, the Börse’s chief executive. Mr Hohn is credited with forcing Dutch bank ABN Amro to put itself up for sale, although last week his attempt to make Japan’s J-Power triple its dividend was rejected by shareholders.

Last year’s donation is one of the biggest single acts of charity by a Briton but pales in comparison with donations by US billionaires, with Warren Buffett last year pledging $31bn to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, which already has $35bn from Mr Gates, founder of Microsoft.

The Children’s Investment Fund Foundation is understood to be worth about $1.4bn. CIFF finances projects for children in the developing world, with a focus on HIV.

The size of the donations is a result of the phenomenal returns Mr Hohn has generated for investors in TCI, which has more than $10bn under management. Last year he made more than 40 per cent, while in 2005 TCI returned more than 50 per cent.

TCI automatically gives 0.5 per cent of its funds under management to the CIFF, a third of its annual fee. Investors pay an extra 0.5 per cent to CIFF if it produces returns above 11 per cent a year, a level it has far outstripped since it was set up in 2002. In addition, Mr Hohn voluntarily donates the majority of the profits earned by TCI after paying staff.

According to documents to be filed with charity regulators on Monday, CIFF and its US affiliate were given £230m in the year to last August, and the foundation made investment gains of £94m on its investments, which are run by TCI.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007

——————–

Feared fund turns to business of charity

By James Mackintosh in London

Published: July 2 2007 03:00 | Last updated: July 2 2007 03:00

When Chris Hohn and Jamie Cooper-Hohn set up hedge fund The Children’s Investment Fund (TCI) and its linked charity, the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation, they hoped to make a difference to children in the developing world.

Mrs Cooper-Hohn told recipients of aid that the foundation may one day be able to give out $5m-$10m a year.

Last year, five years after starting up, they passed that mark, while the success of Mr Hohn’s hedge fund has pushed assets in the CIFF to about $1.4bn (€1bn, £700m), enough to give out far more than the original target every year forever.

But the foundation does not just give out money. It has adopted the "venture philanthropy" model, pioneered by New York’s Robin Hood charity, set up by legendary hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones.

"I was very eager that if we did this we would do it very much in the way Chris invests, making long-term, well-researched investments," Mrs Cooper-Hohn says, "bringing business rigour and a private sector approach into development."

This extends to the language used: the charity hires "portfolio managers" to keep an eye on its "investments", and is willing to step in and make suggestions when it believes a recipient of aid needs help.

"They want to know that you are efficient and effective," says Bill Clinton, former US president, whose Clinton Foundation charity is given money by CIFF. "But in general they are quite tolerant if you try something that doesn’t work, as long as you stop. They are used to taking reasonable risks – that’s how they make money."

Mr Hohn and Mrs Cooper-Hohn are part of a growing trend towards venture philanthropy, and are rapidly becoming one of the biggest British foundations to push business practices into the charity world.

The growth is beyond anything they expected, thanks to the success of TCI. It now has $10bn under management, making it one of Europe’s biggest hedge funds less than five years after Mr Hohn left as manager of US hedge fund Perry Capital’s European fund to start up on his own.

Last year TCI’s concentrated portfolio returned more than 40 per cent, after 50 per cent in 2005 and 40 per cent in 2004, making it one of the world’s best-performing big hedge funds. It is also one of the most feared in boardrooms, particularly in Europe: TCI is credited with killing Deutsche Börse’s bid for the London Stock Exchange, and its appearance on a share register is closely watched by other investors.

But Mr Hohn, a bespec-tacled graduate of Southampton University whomet his wife while doing graduate work at Harvard,is deeply moved by the plight of children in the developed world, say people who know him.

Mrs Cooper-Hohn says that in the early days of the charity, her husband would ask every day whether the fund had generated enough to provide food aid to a particular village he had come across.

"Chris is truly passionate about kids in developing countries," she said. "His first job was in the Philippines and he saw kids scouring the rubbish dumps and I think he was deeply moved."

The extra money means CIFF can now move into areas in which it had previously decided it was too small to make a difference, such as water and hygiene. But its "portfolio" will remain concentrated, to allow it to be closely involved in each project. After intensive research it has decided not to fund some areas, including those aimed at ending sexual exploitation of children.

Some critics claim it is just a marketing gimmick to promote the hedge fund, pointing to presentations to investors about the work of the charity, including one last year by Mr Clinton. But if it was the plan, it has not worked. Almost no one invests in the fund because of the charity, Mrs Cooper-Hohn says.

So far, CIFF has spent relatively little money. However, it is now scaling up significantly but takes a conservative approach to the hedge fund’s long-term potential. "We are in this phase where our assets are rapidly accumulating," Mrs Cooper-Hohn says. "You can’t expect that to last for ever."

The Power of Technology & the Knowledge Economy

The most recent issue of Institutional Investor (its "40th Anniversary Issue") has a series of interesting perspectives from the pioneers and leaders of the financial world ranging from John Bogle & Warren Buffett to Arthur Rock & Henry Kravis. If you can chase it down, it is quite the interesting read. One of the pieces is from Michael Milken who is on the road to redemption. In the piece he states:

"As financial technology is deployed around the world, it has the potential to reduce poverty and the kinds of tensions that breed terrorism."

The statistic that caught my attention the most was his comparison of Jamaica versus Singapore. He wrote:

"Taking this principle (giving talented leaders access to capital…e.g junk bonds) to the national level, there are only three ways for a country to build human capital: Increase knowledge and skills, improve the quality and length of life so people are more productive or import people with specific abilities. Some countries have done this better than others. Consider the two former British colonies of Jamaica and Singapore. Back when I was in school in 1960, their economies were similar, with a gross domestic product of about $1,900 per person (in current US dollars). But they chose different paths to development. Jamaica centered its economy on agriculture and tourism and today has a per capital GDP of about $3,900. Singapore, which developed its human and social capital and created a knowledge infrastructure, is a modern technology powerhouse with a GDP of more than $30,000 per person."

In the end, it is all about "empowering" the most talented people you can find, whether in entrepreneurship or philanthropy, through both capital and resources. This is what makes the difference in your city, your region or your country. Some view Venture Capital more as a day at the casino with bets spread out across the roulette table. Others view it is the critical enabler of innovation. I like Milken’s final conclusion on his piece on philanthropy (which could also cover VC)…"It always involves more than just writing checks. It takes an entrepreneurial approach that seeks out best practices and empowers people to change the world."

Thanks Dick, Eric, Steve & Matt for the Ride

A number of you have been wondering if I am still alive or have given up blogging. Life has been busy to say the least and a 36 hour day would certainly help on getting the posts out. Several companies of mine are selling, financing or working on strategic partnerships. This combined with travel soccer tournament season with the kids and I am no longer master of my life.

That said, as many of you saw on Friday, Google formally announced its acquisition of FeedBurner. I wanted to take this opportunity to thank the founders (Dick, Eric, Steve & Matt) as well as the rest of the management team (Charley, Rick, Brent, Joe, Chris, Don, Eric, Traci & crew) for a great ride. Usually, in the venture world, investments hit near death experiences before sky-rocketing to success. (some also jump into longer-term death status). FeedBurner came out of the shoots on fire and never looked back. In addition to being one of the best financial deals we have ever done, the FB team was one of the most enjoyable to work with. They were always proactive in identifying both opportunity and issues as well as laying out well-thought through solutions. Other words that come to mind are ethical, open, thoughtful and efficient. The community of users and commentators also seemed to share the same enthusiasm for the team and its approach. This drove much of the viral spread of the business. Note to other entrepreneurs: create a better product, iterate frequently to stay ahead, reach out actively & be responsive to your user base and don’t be arrogant asses.

Gang…I’m gonna miss our monthly board meetings but thanks for a great ride!

Are VC’s Simply Valuation Luddites?

This post is directed equally towards 1) entrepreneurs trying to figure out how we value companies and 2) regulators, auditors and such trying to get true market pricing for our assets.

I was recently talking with Eric Nath who is one of the more forward thinking appraisers. We were discussing the mess that all of the new regs and guidances have created in some of the more illiquid asset classes. As discussed in recent posts, the venture industry has an issue on its hands because it is an imprecise world being forced to use precise valuation tools. Many would say that it is about time that we came out of the stone age and accepted more responsible, transparent methods. Furthermore, our industry group, NVCA, has embraced the new valuation recommendations.

So, if we are to join the 21st century on valuation, we need to do two things…determine the discount rate and apply it to our expected cash flows. We should be able to use CAPM to determine our discount rate. However, I don’t know of any public segments that enjoy 50% failure rates and 10% wins in the 8-10x range. I am certain that there is a beta hidden in there, but efforts to bake this into Black-Scholes models have resulted in both divergent and surreal results. So, CAPM has generally been ignored for early stage VC. Next, groups have tried to replicate how VC’s think and back into rates. Early Stage VC’s target 10x return on capital in 3-7 years and Late Stage VC’s target 3-5x in 2-3 years. However, you get massively different IRR’s depending on your scenario (timing & multiple) that look like:

        * Early Stage VC is 10x in 3-7 years
            — at 3 years, this is a 115% IRR
            — at 7 years, this is a 39% IRR
        * Late Stage VC is 3-5x in 2-3 years
            — at 2 years with 5x, this is a 124% IRR
            — at 3 years with 3x, this is a 44% IRR

So, if you average these out, you get roughly an 80% IRR for early stage deals and an 84% IRR for late stage deals. This is a pretty high discount rate and a pretty large range for the IRR’s. Furthermore, if you ask most Late Stage VC’s, few will tell you that they are targeting an 85% IRR. So, I am not certain how you use even our own words to back into the discount rate.

Let’s say that we have figured out what discount rate to use (80%???). All we need to do is apply it to our cash flows to get a present value. The good news is that late stage VC’s should have enough history and profitability in their deals that they could look out 2-3 years and have some confidence that they are in the ballpark. However, their early stage brethren are not so lucky. I don’t know any of our early stage companies that can accurately predict revenue (or CF) more than two quarters out let alone guessing at 2-3 years. Most plans we get from entrepreneurs show massive hockey sticks that rocket to $100m+ in revenue by year 5. Most companies are fighting to get over $20m by year 5. Furthermore, if you formally tracked the accuracy of these five year forecasts, you could drive a truck through them. For the 50% of deals that die, revenue might never get above $2m and for the breakout deal, revenue could be north of $100m or it could get its valuation based on number of members, subscribers, etc but only have revenue below $20m. Either way, the gap is tremendous with year 3 cash flow swinging from -$12m to $15m (or more in either direction). Two companies could look like:

Cash Flow                               Year 1        Year 2        Year 3
Company One                        -$10m        -$12m        -$15m  (increasing due to scaling costs but poor revenue)
Company Two                        -$2m           $2m         $10m (linear traction and growth)

If you apply any discount rate to Company One, you get a negative value and if you apply 40% versus 120% to Company Two, you get a huge different in value.

So, you see the magnitude of the issue. Even by our own standards, the applied discount rate range is enormous due to uncertainly around the timing of the exit. You can use an average, but the standard deviation is massive and would lead to massive mis-pricing for everything other than in the middle of the bell curve. We also have significant uncertainty around the actual cash flows.

It is possible that I am overlooking some clear analogy that would result in a straight forward methodology. In fact, I would pay significant money to any appraiser or regulatory who could help us get visibility around future financials. I don’t enjoy reporting bad news to my partners any more than accountants like imprecise methods. This would save us tremendous heartache post-investing. You have my email above and the comments section below…our phone banks are open and awaiting your calls.